Evaluation of a sentinel surveillance system for influenza, 1995-2000, Kyoto City, Japan.

We compared a municipal sentinel surveillance system for influenza with the Microbial Isolation Surveillance System (MISS) in Kyoto City, Japan. Sensitivity, specificity, and predictive value positive (PVP) of the Influenza Sentinel Surveillance System (ISSS) compared to the MISS were calculated by influenza season and by month. Sensitivity ranged from 80 to 97%, specificity ranged from 55 to 77%, and PVP ranged from 29 to 52% by season (P < 0.001). On the other hand, sensitivity ranged from 86 to 100%, specificity ranged from 38 to 66%, and PVP ranged from 31 to 50% by month (P < 0.001). Specificity was calculated as 93% in November. The sensitivity of ISSS was found to be sufficient regardless of the magnitude of influenza activity. Specificity varied by season, indicating the difficulty of clinically diagnosing other respiratory illnesses. The PVP remained at less than 50% before and after the influenza seasons and it varied year by year. In general, the ISSS is a good surveillance system for monitoring influenza activity.